报告题目：Home-purchase restriction, property tax and housing price in China: A counterfactual analysis

报 告 人：杜在超 教授

主 持 人：何勤英 教授

时    间：2016年6月14日（星期二）上午10:00

地    点：天游线路检测中心602室

报告摘要：

In this paper, we respectively evaluate the effects of home-purchase restrictions and the trial property taxes on housing prices in China using a counterfactual analysis. We modify the method of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) by using the leave-nv-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities. Some Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the better performance of our method. We then construct the counterfactual growth rates of housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing using the selected control cities. We find that: (i) purchase restrictions reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices in Beijing by 7.69 percent; (ii) the trial property tax of Chongqing reduced the annual growth rate of housing prices by 2.52 percent; (iii) the trial property tax of Shanghai had no significant effect on housing prices.

讲座人简介：杜在超，1980年出生，西南财经大学教授、博士生导师，教育部2015年青年长江学者。2003年获得中国科技大学数学学士学位，2005年获得美国印第安纳大学数学硕士学位，2010年获得印第安纳大学经济学博士学位。主要研究领域为计量经济学。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目和教育部人文社科项目。已在Management Science, Journal of Econometrics, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis， Econometric Reviews, 《经济研究》等国内外知名杂志发表论文10余篇。

近几年发表的主要学术论文：

1、 “Backtesting Expected Shortfall: Accounting for Tail Risk”, with Juan Carlos Escanciano, Management Science (SSCI, SCI), forthcoming 

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2548544 

2、“Home-Purchase Restriction, Property Tax and Housing Price in China: A Counterfactual Analysis”, with Lin Zhang, Journal of Econometrics (SSCI, SCI), 2015, Vol. 188, 2, pp. 558–568 

3、“The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis”, with Lin Zhang, Cheng Hsiao & Hua Yin, The World Economy (SSCI), 2015, Vol. 38, 5, pp. 878–892 

4、“A Nonparametric Distribution-Free Test for Serial Independence of Errors”, with Juan Carlos Escanciano, Econometric Reviews (SSCI, SCI), 2015, 34(6-10), pp. 1010-1033 

5、“Decomposing the Rich Dad Effect on Income Inequality Using Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression”, with Renyu Li, Qinying He and Lin Zhang, China Economic Review (SSCI), 2014, Vol. 31, pp. 379391 

6、“Testing for Serial Independence of Panel Errors”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (SCI), 2014, Vol. 76, pp. 248261 

7、“The Macroeconomic Effects of the 35-Hour Workweek Regulation in France”, with Hua Yin and Lin Zhang, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (SSCI), 2013, Vol. 13, No.1, pp. 881–901 

8、 “The Effects of Medical Insurance on Durables Consumption in Rural China”, with Meiling Ying, China Agricultural Economic Review(SSCI, SCI), 2012, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 176-187
9、 “Intraday Probability of Informed Trading”, Economics Bulletin (JEL, EconLit), 2011, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 3103-3112

10、“关系、正规与非正规信贷”, 与孙永苑、张林、何金财合作, 经济学季刊 (CSSCI), 2016年第2期

11、“匹配法综述: 方法与应用”, 与温兴祥合作，统计研究 (CSSCI), 2015年第4期，pp.104-1121. 

12、 “富爸爸、穷爸爸和子代收入差距”, 与李任玉、龚强、何勤英合作，经济学季刊 (CSSCI), 2014,14(1), pp. 231-257
13、 “关系、股市参与和股市回报”, 与朱光伟、张林合作, 经济研究 (CSSCI), 2014,11,87-101

14、 “我国农村家庭消费行为研究 —基于健康风险与医疗保障视角的分析”, 与丁继红、应美玲合作，金融研究 (CSSCI), 2013，10，154-166

15、“需求冲击下的非单调价格调整：来自京沪高铁沿线民航市场的证据”, 与韦锋、张岚、李涵合作，南开经济研究 (CSSCI), 2012, 第6期，133-150

16、 “基本医疗保障对农村家庭消费行为的影响”, 与丁继红、应美玲合作，中国人力资源和社会保障部，第五届中国社会保障论坛三等奖，2013